03 November, 2004

Kerry's Uphill Battle

John Kerry can cheat all he wants, but he's facing a huge task. As of this moment, there are 333 precints yet to report in Ohio. Bush leads the state by 125,000. What Kerry is up against.

Assuming Kerry wins Michigan and Wisconsin,
and that Bush's lead holds in Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa.

1. Kerry is losing the popular vote by well over 3 million now.
2. Kerry would have to be contesting Ohio, a state he lost by more votes than he won by in Michigan or Wisconsin.
3. Not counting Ohio's electoral votes, Bush would be leading the EV 266 to 252.

So JFK would, in effect, be looking to "find" 125,000 more Kerry votes in Ohio. Then couldn't Bush start looking for votes in a state like Wisconsin, which is going to be a lot closer than Ohio? The fact that Kerry would have lost the popular vote by a sizable margin--millions of votes--would stop him from gaining any traction for a recount anywhere. Let alone in a state that he lost by over 100,000 votes.

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