02 May, 2005

HOTDAM III: The Seeds of Discontent

Continuing our series on How To Dismantle an Atomic mullah, we come to part three.

The Seeds of Discontent

During the run up to the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the media and all things left warned us that we were only going to create more terrorists by striking out. Well, we struck, where are all the new terrorists? Whether there are more American haters today than there were before we went into Iraq is debatable, but unimportant for this discussion. For the purposes of our journey, let us give the benefit of the doubt to the Left. Let us assume that by accidentally killing an innocent civilian, even if benevolence were our cover, we would make his entire family or clan hate us. This could make sense but, if true, this model would not stop at the Iraq/Iran border. The mullahs, too, are growing their enemy list daily.

For every teenager arrested and executed, dozens of his family will become enemies of the clerics. Every time they arrest a student (or 8) for speaking critically of the mullahs, the spirit of rebellion awakens in hundreds of classmates. Can you even imagine this? With each newspaper or media outlet they close, with every popular reform candidate they remove from the ballot, with every journalist they imprison the mullahs sow the seeds of their own destruction. These seeds are growing even now. The clerics will rip some seedlings up, as they always have, but they can not hope to eliminate all of their internal threats. Especially if they create more rebels every day. You can not, literally, imprison 70 million people. Although the mullahs get an "A" for effort. In one province, Esfahan, with a population of 4.5 million, there are 765,000 prisoners. That's a whopping 17%.

Let us hope that the Iranian people have not simply resigned themselves to lives of quiet obedience to the mullahs. If the protests are sporadic and isolated, the mullahs can forcefully quell any uprising. If the people take to the streets, all of the streets, the Revolutionary Guard will be unable and unwilling to kill that many civilians. Only with millions of Iranians marching in the streets can the people break the hold the mullahs have on the Iranian military. In Sun Tzu this hold is called the Way or the Moral Law. Obviously, once the military stops obeying the mullahs, the end is near for the theocrats. The coming elections in June are providing the catalyst. The people have tried to unseat the clerics by boycotting elections, by trying reform from "within" the framework of the current mullah-ocracy, and other peaceful measures, all to no avail. What happens between now and the end of June will show us whether the people of Iran are willing and able to overthrow the theocrats.

More from Sun Tzu
Calculations before war:

Therefore, go through it by means of five factors; compare them by means of calculation, and determine their statuses:

One, Way, two, Heaven, three, Ground, four, General, five, Method and discipline.

The Way is what causes the people to have the same thinking as their superiors; they may be given death, or they may be given life, but there is no fear of danger and betrayal.

Heaven is dark and light, cold and hot, and the seasonal constraints.

Ground is high and low, far and near, obstructed and easy, wide and narrow, and dangerous and safe.

General is wisdom, credibility, benevolence, courage, and discipline.

Method and Discipline is organization, the chain of command, logistics, and the control of expenses.

All these five no general has not heard; one who knows them is victorious, one who does not know them is not victorious.

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