21 April, 2006

Flipside Five

Warning, all of the following statements will sound crazy. To the conventional thinker, they all will make the opposite of common sense. To the seasoned contrarian, some will seem mild, others wild. How many come true? We'll have to wait and see to be certain. Between now and then, we offer Contrary Larry's Friday Flipside.

Iraqi Civil War Unlikely
Iraq is not even in the top three in a race to civil war. The number one, most likely candidate for a coup is Afghanistan. The "victory" of Bush's wars. The runners up are, in no particular order; Pakistan, Iran, The United States, Sudan, Russia and an anonymous South or Central American country, maybe Bolivia. Iraq barely cracks the top ten, at number 9, the world's newest "democracy" finishes just behind number 8, Cuba and just in front of Saudi Arabia.

Oil Prices About to Plunge
Currently, crude is selling for above 70 dollars US per barrel. Forecasters predict that price will break 100. Contrary Larry says, oil will be down to 45 dollars per barrel in 6 months. Reserves are at a seven year high, and we are not running out of oil. Once the futures freaks realize they have too much paper in oil, they will begin selling like crazy.

Iran Already Has the Bomb
Our intelligence services have been surprised by almost every country that joined the nuclear club. Our government was amazed that Iraq's WMD were gone. We were stunned at the level of progress that Libya had obtained on the WMD front, luckily Libya got nervous and turned themselves in. The point is that the best we can say about our hum-int gathering is that the agencies charged to acquire and interpret foreign human intelligence are wrong more often than they are right. Our invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq served to improve the security of the religious zealots who rule Iran more than the two wars aided the security of Americans and the religious zealots who rule us. Why?

The Republicans Will Increase Their Seats in Congress
OK, even Contrary Larry doesn't know why or how. But I've been saying this since the Democrats began their obfuscatory tactics in Congress so I'm sticking with it. One of my cardinal rules is never bet against a streak, and the Republicans have been on one. Originally I made this prediction when the Democrats were stalling Bush's judicial appointments. Granted, the recent headlines about Abramoff and the rest of the dirty laundry has dimmed the GOP's hopes, but I'm sticking with my gut on this one. There will be protests and questions about exit polls and people will be screaming against Diebold, but the Republicans will tighten their grip on power this fall.

Real Estate is About to Skyrocket
Why would all the rich people be so nice as to warn us to sell sell sell, now now now??? Maybe Warren Buffett has our best interests at heart, or maybe he knows something he's not sharing. The last time I checked, no one is making land anymore. Maybe prices in some markets will actually go down for a few months or a year. Prices in other markets will slow, but continue to climb, and prices in other markets will remain stagnant for six months or so; and others, still, will keep their steady climb. But if the math in your area says that more people are moving to your state than are leaving, don't hold your breath waiting for the price of that home you have your eye on to drop. Sure their will be price adjustments, but corrections to over hyped prices, in markets seeing a net loss of population --(housing customers); should not be misconstrued as a breakdown of the markets.


beakerkin said...

I don't see oil going down Chavez and Iran are keeping turmoil and uncertainty high

kajando said...

I hear ya, plus summer's on the horizon and then hurricane season. Larry's kind of crazy, but I hope he's right about gas prices.