02 March, 2008

The Big Comeback

Listeing to the major American media outlets, one would think Obama has a giant lead over Hillary. "Time to quit", "Give it up Hil" the headlines cry; day after day after day. The press having been reduced, by their own devices, to mere cheerleaders for the canidate of Hope, have turned their backs to the woman who married the man FROM Hope.

Both candidates have large contingents of delegates lined up. Counting the Superdelegates, 795 Party insiders who also have a say in the nomination process, Hillary trails Barack by 96 delegates. That's a little over 3% difference between them. Obama is winning the popular vote by a margin of 925,000 votes, out of almost 20 million cast so far. That translates into a lead of about 4.7% in popular votes for Senator Obama. Hillary leads the race to wine and dine the Superdelegates, currently swaying 57% of the 423 who have publicly announced their support for a lead of 241-182 amongst the Democratic Party elite.

That hardly looks like a landslide for Obama. What the heck are all those pundits talking about? I swear, from Olberman to O'reily, those people get themselves all carried away. Now, it is true, that Obama has won several primaries in a row, ask the New England Patriots what good a winning streak is. Further it is also a fact that if things continue the way they are going, Obama will break the 2025 finish line and Hillary will fall short. If Hillary continues to win 47% of the delegates, as she has so far, it is unlikely she would carry the 60+% of the Superdelegates like she has so far. But, if she can pick it up just a little bit and win half of the remaining delegates and maintains her near 60% favorability among the insiders, both candidates could break the 2025 mark. Of course, none of this even takes into account Michigan and Florida. This might be fun after all.

The point is, that if Hillary can sway just a few more people than she has been, she has a very good chance to still win the nomination. Then we'll be treated to stories of her great comeback and the media can fawn over their new star. "How did you do it?" They'll ask her in interviews, hourly, "How did you overcome such a big deficit?" She'll crow. "I've been fighting uphill battles my whole life. I'm no stranger to adversity and challenge." And the media will be all stunned that such a thing could have happened, but still plenty pleased to lead a new cheer.

Honestly, I have no stakes in their race; but should Hillary make a comeback, it would not be the giant statistical feat she'll be given credit for by the same talking heads telling us Obama is a lock.

No comments: